Health2 min
J&K's fertility rate stays below replacement level as its older population grows
New survey data shows fewer births, later marriages and a rising share of people over 60 in Jammu and Kashmir. Here is what the numbers say, and what they do not.
Jammu and Kashmir is having fewer babies than most of India, and its population is getting older. The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6, 2023-24) puts the region's total fertility rate at 1.8 children per woman. That is an improvement on the previous round, but still short of the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable over time.
The picture looked starker a round earlier. A comparison attributed to NITI Aayog cited a rate of 1.4 for J&K against 1.9 nationally. That figure comes from NFHS-5, which surveyed households in 2019-21. NFHS-6 places the national rate at roughly 2.0, so J&K has narrowed the gap but not closed it.
Other official data points the same way. The Sample Registration System Bulletin 2024 records a crude birth rate of 14.6 per 1,000 people in J&K, against 18.3 for India. Natural population growth is 9.2 per 1,000 in the region, compared with 11.9 nationally. In plain terms, J&K is still growing, just more slowly than the country as a whole.
The author of the source commentary, which is an opinion piece, argues that no single factor explains this. Many young people are marrying later as they stay in education longer, chase careers or struggle to find stable jobs. Costly weddings and heavy social expectations add pressure. Nuclear households, urban living and easier access to contraception have also made one or two children a common choice. Health matters too. Hormonal disorders, obesity, inactivity and stress can affect fertility. A January 2026 paper, Declining Fertility in Kashmir: Magnitude, Causes, and Implications, also flags delayed marriage, voluntary bachelorhood and divorce as issues needing study.
The sharpest signal in NFHS-6 may be ageing. People aged 60 and above made up 9.5 per cent of J&K's population in NFHS-5. That has risen to 11.9 per cent in NFHS-6. When birth rates stay low and people live longer, the share of young people shrinks over time.
That shift matters for ordinary households. A smaller young population can mean a thinner workforce and a heavier dependency burden, with more older people relying on fewer working-age relatives and public services. The commentary treats this as a long-term planning question, not a short-term alarm. The latest fertility uptick suggests the trend is not a straight line downward.
Read the full opinion piece at Rising Kashmir.
